Saturday, April 19, 2008

Oceanfront Escondido?

With the recent report in the North County Times titled Local fault capable of 7.5-magnitude quake. You might be wondering how Escondido might fair. Historically, the most significant local earthquake appears to be the 5.4 magnitude Oceanside earthquake of July 13, 1986.

According to the Southern California Earthquake Center's searchable earthquake catalog, verified by the California Department of Conservation, there was a 4.3 magnitude quake at 33.070 latitude -116.803 longitude on December 4th, 1991. This would be a couple hundred yards north of the Wild Animal Park. The Escondido Times Advocate, however, didn't mention it.

The Elsinore Fault (pictured), which had a 6.0 magnitude quake on May 15th, 1910, runs closest to Escondido. A 6.0 quake on the fault near Palomar Mountain could lightly damage some buildings in town. A 7.0 quake there could cause heavy damage to many buildings depending on the depth, direction and variation of the seismic waves produced. A 7.0 earthquake has the equivalent strength of the sudden detonation of 32 million tons of TNT.

Because of the strength of the bedrock under Escondido, it is unlikely that the energy from the seismic waves will be amplified and extended here. Therefore, even in the event of a 7.0 earthquake on the nearest location of the nearest fault to Escondido, damage should not be catastrophic.

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